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Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Recent Action - Kingsmen Creative

This will be an update to my latest additions as I accumulated more Kingsmen shares at a price of $0.61 for 23,000 shares. This is now my 3rd largest holding in my portfolio.




The basic thesis to the company remains much similar to what I have previously written (Link here and here) so I will not repeat much of it. Obviously, my first entry to the company was near to the peak so it’s a really bad call and a lesson learnt to always consider for margin of safety – regardless of how much confidence you have in the business (point noted!!!). Since then, I have averaged down a few times as I remain confident in the business and management of the company. 

During these periods, I’ve also received plenty of updates from a prominent blogger who is vested in the company. I don’t want to take any credits from the work he’s done so out of respect I will not mention any of the details here. But all credits to him, I definitely had a greater understanding of the business and their customer segmentation and how the management run the company for the past few years. 




FY15 Results 

With FY15 results finally concluded, let’s first take a dive into their recent performance.

Revenue and Gross Profit Margin remains largely competitive compared to previous year as we’ve seen a much improved growth (26.3% yoy) from the “Exhibitions & Museums” segment offset by the drop (-26.0% yoy) in their “Retail & Corporate Interior” segment. “Research & Design” also managed to grow double digit while this is again offset by the drop in “Alternative Marketing” but the latter two contributions is small for now. 

Net profits came in higher at $19.1m for the year, which includes the $5.9m divestment of associate and financial assets. The recurring profits, without the one-off items, would come in at $13.1m, which translates into a 26% decrease year on year and explains why the shares is where it is today. This translates to a net margin of 4%, which is a new record low in the past 10 years. 

Cash flow from operations after changes in working capital is at $12.8m, while the company has spent a considerable amount of capital expenditure this year – both in the acquisition of land rights for their new HQ and a factory in Malaysia. Hence, free cash flow for this year is negative as compared to the previous couple of years where fcf generation is strong. 

In terms of current valuation, earnings yield based on current price is at 10.8%, a comparable representative for the past couple of years, which seems to indicate that the poor performance has been factored in the weakening of the share price. 

Dividends are cut to 3 cents/share for this year, which still indicates a decent 4.8% yield at this point.


Business Segmentation

The “Exhibitions & Museums” segment remain the main contribution to the company’s topline and they have continued to grow strongly this year by outperforming the previous year with a 26.3% growth. Management cited in the outlook that these segments will continue to do well as they have a few projects tendered and secured so it is likely that we will see a continue momentum upward growth in this segment. 

However, the management conceded that the “Retail & Corporate Interior” segment will be tough in this challenging environment as the company faces a double whammy of slowing economy and a generation shift in the definition of luxuries as the industry evolves. Whilst the slowing economy is cyclical and not structural in nature, the latter factor could shape the direction of how the company will move towards the new luxuries definition of age. With a brand establishment since 1976 and a team with vast experience, I think the company should be able to evolve with the needs of the industry.


Overhead

The company's overhead costs continued to provide pressure for the company's bottomline as depreciation costs increase due to the acquisition of the new factory in Malaysia while salary related also increase due to higher headcount required for new projects tendered, though remuneration was mostly controlled by tying them to company's performance.

With net margin coming in at the lower half of the spectrum, the only way for the company to improve is either to decrease their overheads or increase their topline. OVH / GP is something which I will be watching very closely as the quarter progresses.

In 2015, the company has also made an acquisition for land rights for their new HQ located at Changi Business Park. Construction is under way and once they are ready, we will be able to see a cost saving under the operating leasehold expenses which is currently at $3.8m/year. This currently contributes to 5% of the overall overhead costs in their book.


Valuation

From a valuation perspective, I happened to notice something which is interesting.

We know that most service provider companies like Kingsmen and Vicom would be best measured by discounted earnings or cash flow valuation method because they do what they do best and their services are considered “premium assets”.

Now if we think about most service provider companies, take for instance Vicom - it makes sense for them to trade at a premium to their book value because investors are not paying for the assets in their book but a premium for the services in this case.

But what if you could get a service provider company that is currently trading near the book value, with most of their assets that are either cash, receivable and productive in nature, and you are still able to get their niche services that they are rendering for future projects for free?

A quick look at Kingsmen’s full year statement shows that their NAV is at 56.5 cents and to dissect the balance sheet, most of the composition of their assets include cash, land, buildings, investments and Trade Receivables. We have not even talked about paying for a brand that is worth so much reputable in the industry all these years.

I think that's definitely one angle you can look at.

The other way to look at it is to use the DCF methodology model I've created below and I've put in some reasonable assumption.

- Net Income Growth - 2015 was a bad year and the last time they've been in this situation was during 2007 when they reported lower. Hence, I've made the assumption of 10% growth for the next 5 years. I know it sounds rather ambitious in this sort of environment but as a company I think that's a valid growth rate that they should be looking to bounce back.

- FCF Growth - FCF growth is expected to grow at 7.3% every year again mostly because of the expectation of the net profit growth. Depreciation, Working Capital and Capital Expenditure are all mostly based on actual at present.

- EBITDA Multiple - I think 10x is a fair multiple to value Kingsmen as they've been trading at this range for a long time now.

- WACC - Again, the rate to use here for WACC I have put them at 10% (+- 1% for sensitivity).



Summary

If I am expecting my investment to turn out well for this one, I'll have to expect them to bounce back and grow at a reasonable level in the future. It can be next year or it can be the following year. For as long as bottomline improves over time, the valuation model will show that this company is worth a look just based simply on their services they render alone.

Of course, to mitigate the downside, their NAV is at least worth 56 cents right now (take a look at my explanation above) so from a liquidation value point of view, I know that it should be highly unlikely that it will trade below their NAV, though crap things can happen when you least expect it.

Please do your own diligence and take my words with a pinch of salt, always.

Vested with 80,000 shares as of writing.


36 comments:

  1. Hi again B, I commented on your first blog entry for Kingsmen last year and it is good to see you increasing your shareholding. Similar to you, I also made the mistake of buying at a higher entry price and that is a lesson well learnt for us =(
    The AGM should be quite soon as the dividend has been announced for May 2016 payment as well =)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Trailblazer

      I guess we all have a lesson to learn from this :)

      Did you add to your position these while? It'll be interesting to see fellow investors at the upcoming AGM ;)

      Delete
    2. Hello again B!

      Indeed,we never stop learning from long term investing even though we are finance/audit trained.

      Yup, I topped up my shares in Kingsmen when it fell to 60-62 cents.If the price falls below 60 cents,I will do another top up =)

      My experience with Kingsmen investors in year 2014 was that they asked the board and management questions on current and future plans. We also received information brochures showcasing their projects and exhibitions done for the year.

      With regrets,I didn't attend last year's AGM due to overseas work and have to skip this year's one too.

      Delete
    3. Hi Trailblazer

      Ahh interesting you added more the same time as me :)

      I hope to be able to attend the AGM for kingsmen this year and extract more information on their outlook from the management. I'll update any developments if there are any ;)

      Delete
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  2. great article.
    i like kingsmen too. they are a big player in a niche sector.
    long time holder.. not my top 3 but top 10 holdings.

    cheers,
    foolishchameleon

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. i thought divd was 2c final?
      or, did i miss out something?

      cheers,
      foolishchameleon

      Delete
    2. Hi Foolish Chameleon

      the interim was 1 cent, together with final dividend of 2 cents makes up 3 cents total :)

      Delete
  3. Hi,

    I also bought Kingsmen at around 90 cents. However, I have since pared down my stake significantly. In the short term, I am not as optimistic as you for the following reasons:

    1. Latest results reveal that order book has shrunk significantly compared to recent years.
    2. Entry into affordable luxury, F&B interior fit out will result in lower margins.
    3. Overheads cost continue to increase despite a fall in revenue.

    Regards,
    Heartlandboy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Senorita

      I'm actually not as optimistic in the short term as well but feel like the weakness has been factored in the share price.

      Just feel like there are so much negativity about the industry factored in so if it can surprise on the upsidee, that'll be a bonus. But im not hopeful in the short run, the modeling is just done out of fun to see what happens if we forecast the next 5 years.

      Delete
    2. Hi Heartlandboy,

      This is to address the concerns you have brought up:-

      1) Order book has shrunk "significantly" as a result of the fall in orders from luxury brands. Note that order book for FY 2015 was stated at $113m, which was a -17.5% fall from FY 2014's order book of $137m. However, the revenue to be recognized within the next financial year was $119m and $106m respectively for FY 2014 and FY 2015, which represents a recognition ratio of 87% versus 93.8%. What this implies is that contract flow has fallen (in line with net profit which would have been down -23% if we strip out the exceptional gain of $5.9m), but the recognition of revenue is actually quicker, which means contract length is probably shorter. What I imply from this is that as Kingsmen shifts its order book from luxury to affordable luxury and travel retail, we would start to see contract length shortening and for contracts to be shorter in duration and value. The Company obviously needs to take time to catch up in terms of the volume of contracts in order to make up for what it had lost in FY 2015, and this will take time. But with their M&E (theme park) project revenue contribution increasing as a result of more theme park projects coming up in Asia, this order book should steadily grow and replace the lost revenue in prior years.

      2) Affordable luxury and travel retail do have lower gross margins, but this should be offset by better project management skill and expertise in managing larger theme park projects, so the net effect is that Kingsmen may still see a dip in gross margins, but it should not be too significant. It is more important, of course, for the Company to control costs at the EBIT line, and this of course still remains a concern.

      3) Overhead costs are high currently due to the inability to outsource certain aspects of production and also the need to hire more project managers to take on larger theme park projects. The cash costs should ease once the new HQ is completed as the Company would not need to recognize rental expenses any longer, and will be replaced by a non-cash depreciation expense instead. So even if net profit and net margin remains the same, we should still see an increase in operating cash flow, all things being equal.

      Thanks.

      Delete
  4. Hi B,

    One thing I notice about Kingsmen is its tendency to hoard cash. I wonder why did they choose to finance their land rights and Msia factory acquisition partially through borrowings when they clearly have the means to use 100% cash. Borrowings will obviously incur additional interest expenses which will hurt their already battered bottomline. Any thoughts?

    WK

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi WK

      Kingsmen will have tight cashflow in the next few years as they will have to fork out cash for construction of their HQ (estimated to be at 20m based on insider info) and also the need for tendering for projects, so working capital will be tight.

      It does seem like they are hoarding cash but I think they do have plans to use them during times like this.

      Delete
    2. Hi WK,

      The "tendency" as you would call it to hoard cash is based on a few reasons, and is partly to do with the nature of the industry in which they operate and also the nature of the business itself.

      Firstly, Kingsmen does contracts for many customers and therefore they would need working capital on hand to bid for projects. With the move into theme parks, they would have to stump up more cash to bid for these parcels of work, which are more significant in size and scale. Note that for theme parks, the operators would also wish to deal with a party which has a strong balance sheet, and the cash sitting on the Balance Sheet would give a reliable indication of financial strength and stability.

      Another point is that the cash does not all sit within Singapore, but is spread out among different countries, depending on where it is to be deployed or collected. So Kingsmen may report $xxm of cash on its books, but this cash may sit in different currencies and bank accounts in different parts of Asia. This means that the cash is "locked" for contracts and may not be readily available for use by head office.

      Third, the use of debt to finance the acquisition(s) is because their gearing is low and this may not be the optimal capital structure for the Company. As the cost of borrowing is low, one has to note that the returns from the land rights (new HQ) and the acquisition of K-Fix would be higher than the cost of borrowing, which means it would make sense for Kingsmen to gear up in order to finance this transaction.

      The Company is not making these moves to factor in the short-term (i.e. higher finance costs which impact bottom line in the near-term), but is more of a strategic plan to own assets so that it can shift its fabrication from Singapore to Malaysia (lower cost, more space) and also its staff to a new, expanded HQ which is more tailored for Kingsmen's future needs.

      In light of the above, I would think the decisions are financially sound; and I am confident that the Company would be able to generate sufficient FCF to continue to fund dividends and also to maintain their cash reserves.

      Thanks.

      Delete
    3. Hi B/Musicwhiz,

      Thanks for the valuable insights.

      WK

      Delete
  5. Hi B. Given your familiarity with LMRT, was wondering why the capital was not deployed on this company. Trading below NAV and yield @ 10%. Vested in both KCL and LMRT.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi pc7872

      I think LMIRT is ok for the yield they are offering but there are some factors which I don't quite like about the company. But if you just want the yield, I think it's a decent investment.

      Delete
  6. ROE% is on a down trend, thus valuations are cheap for this small cap stock... if ROE% eventually rots to 10-15% will u still want to pay 1.3 times book value for this stock?

    this may be a value trap

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Felix

      The ROE is going down because the company hasn't had a good year in 2015, which explains why the share price has similarly plunged 40% from the recent peak.

      I don't think we can determine if it is a value buy or value trap just based on roe alone. An ROE that is trending up is good but valuations would have priced them accordingly as well.

      Delete
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    ReplyDelete
    Replies
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      Delete
  8. IMO KC's business is highly dependent on the economy, with the expected slowdown it is likely that the biz is going to suffer. That said however, I do agree that the weakness has been priced in, and with net cash and a relatively stable dividend, I am more than willing to be paid while I wait for the economy to get better. Long KC but at a much higher price than I should have :(

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Unluckid

      Seems like we have the same thoughts but hope this is just cyclical.

      Delete
  9. B,

    I am quite sold about kingsmen at this price. But something just keep nagging me. Just 2014 AR, they expect not flat contribution from retail & Coporate interior but growth and momentum to continue...

    It bugs me for 2 reasons.
    1) management assessment
    2) the reason is competition and the poor economy... Economy did not suddenly go on a downdraft from 2014 end to 2015 end, granted the stock market might had but business expansion plans should not be "on hold" or cancel at the whim and fancy...

    In the same vein, the muesum and exhibition is highly dependent on economy, why is it doing so well then?

    I am wondering since a significant bulk of exhibition rev come from Singapore and 2015 is SG 50 ... I know the future exhibition is done by Kingsmen. 2015 seem a unusually high calendar heavy event. Seas games etc...

    My point is: is it realistic to expand the segment in the double digit growth when we say economy is hurting retail?

    Still reading and just babbling .... Most prob will get some soon unless the bot sail away again

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SI

      My understanding about their assessment when they mentioned in the outlook in 2014 was 2015 was going to be better but obviously we know that is not the case.

      One possibility could be a direct mis-assessment from the management. Most of these projects for retail and corporate are not bound for long term contract so revenue visibility is not as direct as other companies which we can predict to a larger probability. What probably happens is there are direct spending cut from the luxuries and corporate sector and the management fails to see or react on time, especially on their overheads where they cannot just simply release people on the go.

      Regarding the double digit growth, I am not expecting that in the short term either. That is just a simple scenario to tell what the company will be worth for if they grow at 10% for the next 5 years. Having said that, I am not overly pessimistic either since their 2015 results was as bad as 2007, so to go back to the peak, they DO need to grow at double digit growth, assuming if they did one day.

      Delete
    2. Hi,

      Regarding SEA games, KC is a sponsor so I don't think SEA games contributed to revenue but rather as an expense.

      However I'm sure it's great publicity for them!

      Delete
  10. Using a higher hurdle rate of 14%, the Intrinsic value is estimated to be around 85 cents. I went in around 62 cents and will pick up when price goes below 60 cents, which will be just below book. Good luck.

    ReplyDelete
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