Saturday, October 10, 2015

"Oct 15" - SG Transactions & Portfolio Update"


No.
 Counters
No. of Shares
Market Price (SGD)
Total Value (SGD) based on market price
Allocation %
1.
China Merchant Pacific
45,000
0.91
40,950.00
12.0%
2.
Vicom
6,000
6.10
36,600.00
11.0%
3.
Kingsmen
37,000
0.79
29,230.00
9.0%
4.
ST Engineering
5,000
3.16
15,800.00
5.0%
5.
Stamford Land
30,000
0.51
15,300.00
5.0%
6.
Accordia Golf Trust
22,000
0.64
14,080.00
4.0%
7.
Ho Bee Land
6,000
1.99
11,940.00
3.0%
8.
Fraser Centerpoint Trust
6,000
1.97
11,820.00
3.0%
9.
CapitaCommercial Trust
8,000
1.38
11,040.00
3.0%
10.
IReit Global
16,000
0.67
10,720.00
3.0%
11.
Nam Lee Metals
35,000
0.28
  9,800.00
3.0%
12.
Silverlake Axis
14,400
0.65
  9,360.00
2.0%
13.
Dairy Farm*
1,000
9.26
  9,260.00
2.0%
14.
MTQ
7,000
0.52
  3,640.00
1.0%
15.
Warchest*
116,000.00
33.0%
Total SGD
345,540.00
 100.00%





It's another month that goes past which means another round of updates to the portfolio. The main purpose of updating the portfolio is to see how things have played out over the course of investing and to serve a reminder to myself where the end goal is.
 
The market for the past few days have rebounded quite aggressively since we hit a 20% decline not too long ago while everyone was starting to prepare for the bear territory.

It appears that these concerns are unfounded, at least in the meantime because everything appears to look “rosy” now despite the global outlook warning that there will be a few countries that will enter recession within the next year or so. This is probably the reason why staying vested in the market has its advantages and you can see why. In fact, experts believe that the best returns for investors are made within the first 5 days of the bull run. If you missed those runs, your returns would be reduced substantially. I guess we’ll just need to wait for another round of opportunity in the market which could take weeks, months or even years, no one knows.

For my own personal portfolio, I’ve benefited quite a bit from this rebound in the market.

First, I made a quick trade in the month by buying DBS and OCBC and then divested them a couple of days later for a gain of about $5K. It is a decent amount of profits but is not something which would dramatically change the outlook of my overall portfolio. Banks are always going to be cyclical in their nature of business and their performance will be closely tied to the global outlook of the economy. I think there could be another chance for a re-entry should the market head southwards but if not then it’s fine. Banks are not part of my long term strategies to hold them in my portfolio.
 
I also accumulated ST Engineering during the recent correction as I think it represents some value over the long term, especially since they are trading at a 5 year low in terms of the PER. With USD strengthening over the course of time, there will be a positive contribution to the company as around one-third of its business are denominated in USD currency.
 
Lastly, I also trimmed my position in Vicom as I feel that they are trading at a fair valuation given the moderate outlook of the vehicle and non-vehicle business for the next few years. Earnings are still resilient though growth outlook may be somewhat muted from here. I’ll be interested to see where they are heading in the next couple of quarterly earnings report and what the management is going to do about it before making any further decision.
 
For all the transactions listed above, you may refer to the "Recent Transactions" for the details.



Oct has been a very good month and something I will be proud of.
 
While the equity networth was never the focus of my attention, the portfolio for the month of October has increased quite a bit to $345,540 (+5.1% month on month; +38.2% year on year) due to the recent rebound in the market. It is also a big moment on a personal term because just a couple of months ago back in Aug I mentioned I was a couple of yards away from the goal. It appears that it is always better late than never.
 
With still 2 months to go before we conclude the end of the year, I will look to make a strong run into the final with a traditionally strong Nov and Dec still to come. The warchest portion has now gone back into 33% so I will pounce again on any chance of pullback in the market.
 
What about you? Have your portfolio recovered in the recent rebound in the market?


14 comments:

  1. Interesting that you are not looking to keep some of the banking/finance sector stocks?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Paul

      Not at this range. I feel there's a lot more trading opportunities for bank stocks than to keep it as dividend play.

      Delete
  2. My current portfolio , you've seen la, but size is not as big as you! Wahahaha

    ReplyDelete
  3. B,

    I probably missed all the fun part of the recent recovery since I was away for 2 weeks. No action for two weeks, but the dividend continued to come in. :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Sanye

      I think you are secretly accumulating a bigger warchest right? :D

      I can see a few investors going to make a kill in this upcoming bear market with their huge warchest they had.

      Delete
    2. Hi B,

      Yes the warchest gets bigger since the dividend received in September and early October are not re-invested. Percentage wise my cash portion is only about 19%, much lower than your 33%.

      I don't know if there is an upcoming bear market. I just take it when it comes. If market should head south again I will accumulate again if not just wait, or slowly looking for good gems.

      Delete
  4. Typically, bank stocks are cyclical in nature. And the dividend payout is around 30%. Among the 3 locals bank, only OCBC dividend CAGR for the past 3 to 5 years. Nevertheless, the countries exposure are different for these 3 banks as well. Banks are not simple business & there’s several area need to look into it.

    However, over the long term interest rate exposure, banks sector stocks are good consideration. I am quite neutral over bank stocks. But, if we are really talking about dividend investing ONLY, I will go for OCBC base on its total return pertaining to their dividend yield & dividend growth.

    Daniel

    www.passivedividendinvestor.com

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Daniel

      Exactly my thoughts.

      I feel it's better to play the trading way on banking stocks than to keep it over in one's portfolio. I may be wrong but I'd rather buy when valuations are more attractive and sell when it had gone way over the average.

      Delete
    2. Hi Brian,

      Indeed, quite likely I would do the same. Unless, the person portfolio is huge (millions), keeping substantial bank stocks are fine. And, I know one shareholder only hold bank stock but his portfolio is really huge (millions). Even if there’s dividend cut from his bank stock, he still can live off the dividend out from it.

      However, if other normal people with few hundred K, living off the income from the dividend from the bank stocks, there will be risk to it. The pay-out is low, cyclical business which might leads to possible dividend cut. Despite, their revenue and earnings are always growing, it doesn’t translate to higher payout to the shareholders.

      Moreover, new challenges are surfacing for the banks, especially online bank which pay higher interest, crowdfunding and others. They should innovate and not sticking to the old ways of doing things.

      Nevertheless, bank stocks are good consideration especially now the lot size have been reduced.

      Cheers
      Daniel

      Delete
  5. Typically, bank stocks are cyclical in nature. And the dividend payout is around 30%. Among the 3 locals bank, only OCBC dividend CAGR for the past 3 to 5 years. Nevertheless, the countries exposure are different for these 3 banks as well. Banks are not simple business & there’s several area need to look into it.

    However, over the long term interest rate exposure, banks sector stocks are good consideration. I am quite neutral over bank stocks. But, if we are really talking about dividend investing ONLY, I will go for OCBC base on its total return pertaining to their dividend yield & dividend growth.

    Daniel

    www.passivedividendinvestor.com

    ReplyDelete
  6. 39% increase over a year period? This is absurd amount. You did it without trading options. I saw a blogger was holding 100% cash because he thinks the market would crash. Then there was a 10% market dip, he was too afraid to deploy any cash. He's waiting for a bigger crash :).

    As for my account, I'm not too far from $200k, I'll post an update in a very near future. :)

    ReplyDelete
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