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Thursday, May 28, 2015

Singapore O&G Ltd IPO - Thoughts

I was highlighted from a fellow blogger, Richard from Invest Openly regarding the upcoming healthcare related IPO which will be listed in the Catalyst. Many people are comparing this against related healthcare Raffles Medical which are now trading at around 30x PER. For me, I'd see this more towards the proxy of Cordlife, since they are in the industry of gynaecology and birth rates grooming.

A total of 43.6 millions of shares were offered but only 2.2 millions were offered to the public, which translates into about $550K in absolute figure. In my opinion, this is way too little and they probably want to get long term institutional investors to come in and grab the rest while leaving little to the public.



I took a quick look at the prospectus and develop the following thoughts:-

1.) Financials look really solid there.

It's hard to find companies netting a profit margin in the above range of 35% and this shows exactly how expensive is our medical costs in Singapore. For me, they are sitting in such a sweet position that even if costs do go up or outlook are a bit mediocre, they have the buffer to take it on comfortably.




2.) Dividends Payout is really enticing here at 90% of net profit for FY2015. 

Even though they maintained that they do not have a fixed dividend policy, it looks like this is a sweetener deal to entice investors into investing in the shares, as they are "willing" to share their huge profits with the minority shareholders. We'll see in due time if they can continue to maintain that, which I am a bit skeptical of because they only retained so little earnings used for expansion, if any. The yield is projected to be at 7.3% at the IPO price. Note that this is unlevered dividend yield, unlike the structure of Reits that pays out the same payout but levered.




3.) Balance Sheet looks real solid here with zero net gearing and rich cash position.

Woolala, I have a soft spot for companies that has strong earnings capability with huge cash hoard and zero debt. Perhaps the impending increase rate increase has something to do with it lately. In any case, I suspect they might go into debts once the expansion plans are properly in place since the $3m proceeds (explained later) that goes into expansion looks unlikely to be sufficient.




4.) Use of Proceeds

Based on the prospectus, $9.2 millions are expected from the IPO after deducting relevant expenses. The proceeds will go into:



I like the fact that they are not using the proceeds mostly for working capital purpose (discussed later). $3M will go into expansion while the rest of the other $6M will go into investments in synergistic businesses such as child care services, paediatrics, etc. 

Having a kid of my own, I know how much profitable it is to have such an extension works out that are child related. I see this as extremely positive move.


5.) Cashflow generating capability

This is my next favorite section of looking at businesses.

Capex remains low since the majority of their expenses would have come under the salaries portion which already make up of the cash flow from operating, so operating cashflow and fcf is generally very strong. Based on the prospectus, ipo price to operating cashflow is at 8.9x and against fcf is at 8x. That is pretty good if you ask me.




6.) Business Model

The kind of business model the company is operating is very similar to what I previously blogged about Vicom.

First, you have regular customers that are unlikely to switch out once you locked them down, unless they have a very bad experience to start with. Also, with their expansion plan regarding the paediatrics and child care services, they can tag on their existing customer base to the extension service.

Next, most of their costs come mainly from the salaries they use to pay the doctors. Finding the right expertise could be an issue but somewhere in the prospectus they mentioned about allowing doctors and professional who want to switch from a public to private practice to come in and join them. We know that when they do that, they probably bring in their regular clients with them.

The company also mentioned that they have gained more market share during the past few years so given the medical hub Singapore is trying to place itself in, it looks like they are in a sweet spot to enjoy the government initiatives.


Final Thoughts

I generally like what I see in their prospectus and outlook.

The thing that I am still considering is given the low public float they are offering, everyone might get only a tiny slice of the company. We can take a look at Starburst for instance, where the ipo was over-subscribed by more the 9x and those who bidded for 100 lots did only manage to get 5 lots.

I think the share price would do well on its first day of trading and for the upcoming years to come. I might just bid for the ipo if I think it wouldn't be a waste of time getting tiny lots from it.

Last Update: I have made an application bid of 101,000 shares for the IPO. Will update the outcome of the application.


54 comments:

  1. With a 90% pay out ratio, you'd think they feel there's little need to retain cash for expansion. This puzzles me as I feel their business model seems pretty scalable. Then again, you have competition from the RH and the private hospitals as well. Any thoughts on this?

    I also wonder what their competitive edge is. Any idea?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi MW

      Competition from private hospital is definitely going to be there but given the fat topline and bottomline margins the industry is operating now, it does seem that they are still able to share the pie together.

      A lot of this kind of thing is due to the brand superstar name of the specialist. I remember for my own experience, the popularity and skills of the specialist does matter in choosing rather than the company they are working for. This is probably a competition of who can get the best doctors out there with their customer base and attraction proposition. As for o&g in particular, im not sure whats the edge right now they hv over other private sectors but if the brand bame gets bigger eventually, it'll be much easier to scale and attract talent.

      Delete
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  2. If I am not wrong, SOG's IPO was not advertised in the newspaper. Hopefully not many people will know about it :P

    ReplyDelete
  3. It's in the newspaper. I saw the ad for it..small one though, and obviously not full page.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Yeah, with only a small amount raised from the public, I don't think they need to post full ads for the ipo.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I think the CEO has a great mind behind this IPO... What do u think? Or is it the doctors?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi ABC

      I think majority of the holdings are held by the doctors themselves.

      Obviously, you still need a good management to run the business and make sound financial decisions. So both key stakeholders are still important.

      Delete
  6. This ipo is very similar to Talkmed ipo in my view, which is a very good thing. Talkmed ipo was at 0.20 now its 1.13.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Hayden

      Indeed it is, good to see that Talkmed is doing very well now. I think it's still trading at PER of around 20x?

      Delete
    2. Yes rolling PE 18.60, P/B 12.2x

      Delete
    3. Thanks Hayden.

      I have submitted an application bid for the ipo. Let's see if it works this time round.

      Delete
    4. Yes I will be bidding too, see how it goes and good luck :)

      Delete
    5. Let's wish for the best ahead ;)

      Delete
  7. I noticed that they have not retained most of its earnings to fund future growth and yet wishes to use its IPO for future growth instead.

    What are your thoughts on that?

    I feel that it raise some questions about management’s capital allocation chops and the rationale for the IPO.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Azrael

      The management mentioned that they do not have a fixed dividend policy and only commit to pay out 90% dividends for FY2015. There's no guarantee that they will continue to maintain the same for the next few years. We'll just have to see how the growth plays out from here.

      Delete
    2. I have bid as well (using some excess funds). Will see how it rolls out. =)

      Delete
    3. Let's see how it turns out on balloting results ;)

      Delete
  8. Hi B,

    I am 12 lots subscribed. Maybe just get 1 lot!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Rolf

      Woah even you are bidding as well!!! Gd luck to that.

      Delete
  9. HI B,

    As i looked into prospectus, can you enlighten me about the difference between annex a and annex b financial report? Why is it that given the same FY, Annex A is audited and annex B is unaudited.

    There seems to be a difference in dividends in Annex B which were not shown in Annex A as per written in the Cash flow report. the amount of 3,657,400 paid in annex b were not reflected in annex a.

    Any possibility of the difference and discrepancy?

    Thanks!
    Caleb

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Caleb

      I didn't notice it until you mentioned :)

      On page 262 there is a pro forma adjustment made of 1.4m from the unaudited accounts so im guessing there is a reclassification issues to the subsidiaries. Im not too sure about why they would miss that so im guessing its reclassification reporting issues. For our purpose I think I am looking the audited accounts as that woyld be what will be in their statutory financial statements. But great catch there!!!

      Delete
  10. I am a little skeptical about the business. O&G is a very specialized field for women's patients such as having a new born, etc. Moreover, all their clinics are operating within the hospitals and making use of the facilities. The benefit is that you do not have to own a hospital but each time you use the facility, you pay for services, the equipment and space. The hospital dictates the charges and eventually these charges are passed on to the patients. While the practices of other private hospitals may seem to follow the same model, it would mean there will be a lot of competition from within the same hospital as there will be other groups who operate and practice the same trade in the same specialised field in the same hospital. Therefore, the charges play an important part in the company's bottom line. There are other factors such as the popularity of the doctors including their skills, etc. Looking at the falling birth rates of Singaporean, the Company will have to rely heavily on foreign patients and the competitions from our neighbouring countries which tend to charge less. Moreover, looking at what was mentioned in the prospectus, the Company handle live births of between 4% to 6% of the total live birth in Singapore's Private Hospital, I have doubts about the Company's generating profits in these field. It will be interesting to know why there was a jump in net profit of 3.1mil to more than 5mil from 2013 to 2014!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Seeing this post, I'm intrigued.

      I'm guessing that they are trying to/hoping to ride the wave on our gahmen promoting birth rates somehow.

      As for flying in for medical treatment, you'll be surprised at the numbers. People do go to other countries for cheap, but Singapore is sorta "branded" in a sense that people are willing to pay more for good services.

      As for live births, that's not just the sole purpose of O&G you know, they have women's clinics as well. But I agree that there is completion with the O&G branches of those hospitals as well as the doctors&facilities. Not sure if it is because of spillovers of patient loads.

      I'm curious on what everyone else thinks?

      Delete
    2. Hi Anonymous

      I'm gathering that they gained market share from 2013 to 2014 which is why profit has jumped. They could hv easily increase this by acquiring more doctors to join them in this profit sharing scheme.

      I'm generally fine towards the outlook as they still have a healthy margins to buffer for more competition. The expansion would be key and if they can gain market share through extension service then it would be better.

      Delete
    3. Hi Azrael

      Yeah, I think with the govt trying to promote medical tourism, singapore would gain more recognition of market share from overseas in years to come. Even though this may seem like a very saturated market, but we are surprised to see so many demands even from the locals alone.

      Delete
  11. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  12. One thing about this business is that they have a very strong balance sheet and keeps on having high free cash flow.

    The acquisitions of the different clinics seems to be that they utilised stocks options fully thus they were able to get all the assets of the acquired clinic.

    One weakness i can see is that, they are very heavily reliant on those key doctors that are generating most of the wealth.
    Also i'm also not sure how if the CEO can get to run his job well when the founders(doctors) are also the specialist yet the executive chairwoman of the company....

    Besides $3m and 90% payout dividend seems to be quite low for expansion, imagining that profit will have grown 13%(Since CAGR is 19% for last 3 years), with profit at 4.8m, assuming 90% paid. a total of 3.5m will be used for expansions, sounds contradictory as to how much can it grow?
    Especially so when they have acquired DR BEH clinic at S$3,065,808(Page a-34).

    Any thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Caleb

      Yeah reliant on doctors is one thing to note of but im not sure why they would want to back out if this advantages them. After all, they have all agreed to come out and do this to get it publicly listed.

      Regarding the $3m used for expansion, im guessing that they are using it more for brand advertizing for their overseas exposure clients. Im guessing that these will be used to capture more market share whilst the doctors remain the same. The 6m investment part is more interesting to me.

      Delete
    2. HI!

      Anyway thanks for sharing... will continue to watch about it... might buy in at the open market even if no chance at ipo...

      Quite new at balloting for IPO shares, how would you know how many lots would you have balloted after 12pm tomorrow?

      Delete
    3. Hi Caleb

      We will know through the following day after it closes.

      If you have make the bid via internet banking, there's a section there to check on your application status whether it has been successful or not.

      Gd luck with the application!!! Finger cross.

      Delete
    4. Hi B,

      I applied via ATM. Is there a way to verify if my application is successful?

      In case we are not lucky enough of getting IPO, what would be your ideal entering price to buy from open market tomorrow?

      Delete
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  14. Couldn't help but this is very interesting for me that the IPO has already come with dividend offering??!! They reserve back most of the share is a good sign, especially if the insider believe in themselves and their company.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Vivianne

      Indeed they are and they are enticing as well. Definitely good for DGI investors ;)

      Delete
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